More Chaos At The Kentucky Derby Today

And your pal Glen's final pick 😉

Bettor mayhem in Louisville today.

Morning favorite Forte was scratched by Churchill Downs vets for a bruised hoof earlier today. His owners made a statement that, while they understood and cooperated with the decision, they cleary felt that the decision was being excessively cautious in light of the week they've been having there in Louisville, with four horses having to be put down at the track this week and a total of five horses being scratched from the Kentucky Derby.

Truth is, there's been a lot of crazy shit and controversy surrounding the Kentucky Derby over the past few years.

2019 with the first ever DQ of the winning horse in Derby history after some wacky DUI lane change stunt by winner Maximum Security.

2021 with the second ever DQ of the winning horse, Medina Spirit, after doping charges against trainer Bob Baffert (who probably also doped 2020 winner Authentic 🙄).

And the 2nd biggest upset in Derby history last year by Rich Strike at 80-1, by a horse that wasn't even in the race until the day before when another horse scratched.

Like a lot of us, The Kentucky Derby has had a pretty bumpy ride since covid. 😏

But there will be a race today, in less than 20 minutes, and with Nostradumbass-like prognostication skills, here's how I think it's gonna go. 😁

I still like Tapit Trice today, and I'll tell you why, but it's 'sketchier' in my head now for some reason. 🤔

What I like about Tapit Trice is that the way he's run all of his races is really similar to how Secretariat won the Derby in '73.

(Full Stop...I am in no way comparing Tapit Trice to Secretariat, because that'd be faacking ridiculous. 😆 Just hear me out.)

Tapit Trice gets out of the starting gate like a big, fat-assed, sleepy mule. Like, the gates open, and all the other horses go, and Tapit Trice is like "Oh shit!", then he goes. Every time.

Then he sits in the back while the rest of the field strings out and positions themselves.

Then on the back stretch he starts muscling his way past the field, pulling around the outside to get even with the leaders coming out of the final turn, then isolates with the leader, staying neck and neck down the home straight, then he bumps that last "gear" to get a nose or half a length ahead at the finish.

And that's exactly how Secretariat won it in '73...except Tapit Trice doesn't have the "gear" where you break 2:00 minutes for the mile and a quarter, or say "Faaaack all you other punkass horses" and muscle the whole field down in the first turn at the Preakness, or win the Belmont by 31 lengths. 😏

Anyway, I originally was calling for that above scenario between Tapit Trice and Forte, with TT taking it in a close one...which is obviously not going to happen now. 🙄

So I'm keeping the scenario, except replacing Forte with Japanese entry Derma Sotogake, who I think is underrated. Only I'm also troubled by another Japanese entry, Mandarin Hero, who just barely qualified for the Derby and only got in yesterday because of one of the scratches…just like the 80-1 shot last year. 😏

So...Tapit Trice over Derma Sotogake by a nose, or a Derma Sotogake blowout, or maybe Mandarin Hero with the upset.

That's what I've got. 😆

As always, and obviously, I don't know shit, so don't go bet perfectly good money on my account. 😉

Safe trip to all the human and equine athletes tonight.